A life in words

  • Priority

    In Bayesian statistics [based on those opening words I know I’ve already lost 50% of you] there is a concept of a priori and a posteriori beliefs. A prior probability distribution (also simply called a prior) indicates that prior to making an observation I already have some beliefs about the nature of the system being…

  • So Open It’s Closed

    There is a point at which an open mind becomes so open that it closes in on itself. At least, that’s what I think. At some point, the willingness to consider any and every thought as at least initially equivalent can wash out any willingness to evaluate the accuracy of those viewpoints. At that point,…

  • Choice and Belief: A Deliberately Credulous Introduction

    It’s been a little while since posting, and there’s a reason: I’ve been sitting on a stool somewhere in a smoke-filled room (Note: It wasn’t tobacco smoke—somebody just burned something in the oven, of course!) slaving away over a series of new articles on the topic of Choice and Belief. If after reading through all…

Of a commonwealth, whose subjects are but hindered by terror from taking arms, it should rather be said, that it is free from war, than that it has peace. For peace is not mere absence of war, but is a virtue that springs from force of character….Baruch Spinoza, Tractatus Theologico-Politicus V.4, 1670, trans. A. H. Gosset 1883